Fund Size, Strategy, and the Rule of 30: A Guide for Investors

In venture capital and private equity, the relationship between Limited Partners (LPs) and General Partners (GPs) is crucial. One of the most critical aspects of this relationship is understanding how fund size impacts investment strategy and expected returns. This article looks into the often-cited principle that "fund size determines strategy" and introduces a simple yet powerful heuristic called the "Rule of 30" to help investors gauge the necessary exit values for a fund to achieve its target returns.

The Basics: LPs and GPs

Before we dive into the specifics of fund size and strategy, let's briefly review the roles of LPs and GPs:

• Limited Partners (LPs): These are the investors who provide capital to the fund but are not involved in its day-to-day management. LPs can be institutional investors, high-net-worth individuals, or family offices.

• General Partners (GPs): These are the fund managers who make investment decisions, manage the portfolio, and work to generate returns for the LPs and themselves.

How Fund Size Determines Strategy

It's a common adage in the investment world that "fund size determines strategy." This principle holds particularly true for portfolio construction. Here's why:

• Investment Size: Larger funds need to make bigger investments to move the needle on returns. A $1 billion fund can't focus on $1 million seed rounds if it hopes to generate meaningful returns.

• Stage Focus: As funds grow, they often shift from early-stage to later-stage investments. This is partly due to the need for larger check sizes and partly because later-stage companies can absorb more capital.

• Number of Investments: Larger funds may make fewer, larger investments, while smaller funds might spread their capital across more companies.

• Sector Concentration: Fund size can influence which sectors GPs target. Capital-intensive industries like biotech or clean energy might be more attractive to larger funds.

• Geographic Reach: Bigger funds often have the resources to invest across multiple geographies, while smaller funds might focus on specific regions.

The Rule of 30: A Simple Heuristic for Exit Values

While fund size clearly impacts investment strategy, it also has significant implications for the total value of exits a fund needs to achieve its target returns. This is where the "Rule of 30" comes into play.

The Rule of 30 is a simple heuristic that helps estimate the total exit value a fund needs to achieve a 3x gross multiple. Here's how it works:

• Assume the fund owns 10% of a portfolio company at exit (on average).

• Multiply the fund size by 30.

• The result is the total exit value the fund needs to achieve a 3x gross multiple.

Example 1: $100 Million Fund: Let's apply the Rule of 30 to a $100 million fund:

• Fund size: $100 million

• Rule of 30 calculation: $100 million × 30 = $3 billion

This means that for a $100 million fund to achieve a 3x gross multiple, it needs its portfolio companies to exit for a total value of $3 billion.

Example 2: $500 Million Fund: Now let's look at a larger fund:

• Fund size: $500 million

• Rule of 30 calculation: $500 million × 30 = $15 billion

For this $500 million fund, the portfolio companies need to exit for a combined value of $15 billion to hit the 3x gross multiple target.

Implications of the Rule of 30

Understanding the Rule of 30 has several important implications for both LPs and GPs:

• Realistic Expectations: It helps set realistic expectations for the scale of exits needed to generate target returns.

• Strategy Alignment: GPs can use this rule to ensure their investment strategy aligns with the fund's size and return targets.

• Portfolio Construction: It influences how GPs construct their portfolios, balancing between "home runs" and more modest exits.

• Fund Size Decisions: LPs can use this rule to evaluate whether a fund's size is appropriate given its strategy and track record.

• Market Dynamics: It highlights the need for funds to consider overall market dynamics and the likelihood of achieving the necessary exit values.

Limitations and Considerations

While the Rule of 30 is a useful heuristic, it's important to note its limitations:

• Ownership Variation: The 10% ownership assumption may not hold true for all investments. Some may be higher, some lower.

• Return Distribution: Returns in venture capital are often heavily skewed, with a few big winners compensating for many losers.

• Gross vs. Net Returns: The rule focuses on gross multiples. Net returns to LPs will be lower after fees and carried interest.

• Time Horizon: The rule doesn't account for the time it takes to achieve these exits, which is crucial for calculating IRR.

• Market Conditions: Achieving the necessary exit values depends heavily on market conditions, which can vary significantly over a fund's life.

The Rule of 30 provides a simple yet powerful framework for understanding the relationship between fund size and required exit values. By multiplying a fund's size by 30, investors can quickly estimate the total exit value needed to achieve a 3x gross multiple, assuming 10% ownership at exit. This rule underscores the critical interplay between fund size and investment strategy. As funds grow larger, they need correspondingly larger exits to generate attractive returns, which in turn influences their investment approach, stage focus, and portfolio construction. For LPs, this rule can serve as a valuable tool in evaluating fund proposals and setting realistic expectations. For GPs, it provides a guideline for aligning fund size with investment strategy and target returns. Ultimately, while the Rule of 30 is a useful heuristic, it should be considered alongside other factors such as market conditions, sector dynamics, and the specific skills and track record of the GP team. By combining this rule with thorough due diligence and a deep understanding of the venture capital landscape, investors can make more informed decisions and better align their expectations with fund performance.