When AI Changes Everything, Invest in the Unchanging: The Founder

The venture capital world thrives on pattern recognition. For years, in addition to stages two dominant patterns have guided investment theses: thematic focus (AI, SaaS, climate tech etc.) and geographic focus (Silicon Valley, New York, emerging hubs etc.). These strategies offer perceived advantages: deep domain expertise for thematic VCs, and strong local networks for geographic ones. Yet, in an increasingly dynamic and unpredictable market, are these the most resilient or even most lucrative long-term approaches? I argue that a founder type focus – identifying and backing individuals with specific, proven entrepreneurial characteristics, regardless of their current sector or location – offers a more robust and ultimately more rewarding path for VCs.

The Shifting Sands of Themes

Themes are inherently cyclical. Today's hot sector can be tomorrow's over-saturated, underperforming landscape. VCs who hitched their wagons solely to "NFTs" a few years ago might now be feeling the chill. While expertise in a theme is valuable, an over-reliance can lead to:

• Chasing Hype: Investing at peak valuation due to FOMO within a popular theme.

• Missed Opportunities: Ignoring brilliant founders working on less trendy but potentially groundbreaking ideas.

• Forced Fits: Trying to shoehorn a company into a thematic box where it doesn't truly belong.

Similarly, while local networks are undeniably powerful, a strict geographic focus in a globalized world is becoming increasingly anachronistic. It can lead to:

• Limited Talent Pool: Missing exceptional founders simply because they aren't in your immediate vicinity.

• Echo Chambers: Potentially reinforcing local biases and missing diverse perspectives.

• Artificial Scarcity: Overlooking global markets and talent that could unlock greater scale.

The AI-Native Magnifier: Why Founder Focus is Now Paramount

The current explosion of AI-native companies further underscores the critical need for a founder type focus. While "AI" itself is a theme, the landscape is evolving at an unprecedented, almost dizzying, pace. This hyper-evolution makes betting on a specific AI sub-theme or application incredibly risky without the right captain at the helm. Here's why founder traits become even more crucial:

• Navigating Uncharted, Rapidly Shifting Territory: AI models, capabilities, and best practices are changing weekly, not yearly. A founder who isn't obsessively learning, deeply adaptable, and capable of rapid iteration will quickly be left behind. Their ability to pivot within the AI space, or even leverage AI in an entirely novel way, trumps a static understanding of "AI" today.

• Beyond Technical Prowess – The Product & Ethical Maze: Building an AI model is one thing; identifying a genuine customer problem that AI can uniquely solve, and then navigating the complex ethical, societal, and data privacy implications, is another entirely. This requires immense product vision, user empathy, and a strong moral compass – traits inherent in top-tier founders, not just AI technicians.

• The Moat is the Founder, Not Just the Model: As foundational AI models become more accessible, the true defensibility for many AI-native companies won't be the underlying technology (which risks commoditization) but the unique application, the proprietary data strategy, the ecosystem built around it, and the speed of execution. These are all driven by founder ingenuity and leadership.

• Defining "Value" in an AI World: Many initial AI applications are features, not standalone businesses. Exceptional founders possess the insight to see beyond a cool AI demo and envision a sustainable business model, a compelling value proposition, and a path to market dominance. They can distinguish between an AI-powered tool and an AI-native company that fundamentally redefines an industry.

In essence, AI accelerates the rate of change and ambiguity. In such an environment, the constant isn't the specific technology application, but the founder's ability to learn, adapt, lead, and execute.

The Enduring Power of the Founder Archetype

So, what is a "founder type focus"? It’s about prioritizing the innate qualities of the individuals leading the charge. Great founders are the constant in the highly variable equation of startup success. They possess a constellation of traits that allow them to navigate uncertainty, pivot when necessary, and build something extraordinary from nothing. These traits often include:

• Unwavering Resilience & Grit: Startups are a brutal gauntlet. Founders who have demonstrated the ability to get knocked down and get back up, again and again, are invaluable.

• Exceptional Problem-Solving & Adaptability: They see roadblocks not as dead ends but as puzzles to be solved.

• Compelling Vision & Evangelism: They can articulate a future so clearly they attract talent, customers, and capital.

• Learning Agility & Coachability: They are voracious learners, open to feedback, and capable of rapidly assimilating new information.

• Execution Prowess: They have a bias for action and an obsession with getting things done efficiently.

• Integrity and Leadership: They build cultures based on trust and can lead diverse teams through high-pressure situations.

Why This Focus Wins

• Antifragility: A portfolio built around exceptional founder types is inherently more resilient. If one market or technology (like a specific AI approach) dries up, these founders are more likely to find a new path to success.

• Wider Opportunity Set: By not being constrained by a specific theme or location, VCs can fish in a much larger, more diverse pond.

• Better Risk Mitigation: Betting on proven human capability is often a more reliable mitigator than betting on the longevity of a specific tech trend.

• True Alpha Generation: Identifying these founder archetypes before they are widely recognized is where true alpha lies.

The Practical Shift

Adopting a founder type focus doesn't mean ignoring market dynamics or the value of domain expertise. Instead, it reorders the priorities. The primary filter becomes: "Is this an exceptional individual or team with the raw materials for greatness?" If yes, then the subsequent questions are: "Is the problem they're solving significant? Is the market opportunity compelling?" VCs can develop this focus by:

• Deep-Diving on Founder Backgrounds: Looking for patterns of resilience, learning, and execution.

• Behavioral Interviewing: Designing questions to unearth core traits.

• Reference Checks Beyond the Obvious: Talking to people who have seen the founder under pressure.

• Building Networks in Founder Communities: Actively seeking out individuals who embody these traits.

While thematic and location-based strategies have their place, the bedrock of any truly transformative company is its founder or founding team. The rise of AI, with its rapid evolution and inherent uncertainties, only magnifies this truth.

VCs who prioritize identifying and backing exceptional founder archetypes will be best positioned to navigate the complexities, seize unforeseen opportunities, and ultimately, generate outsized returns. It’s time to double down on the "who."